Canelo Alvarez vs Caleb Plant: Quick Prediction

Fight night is fast approaching for Canelo Alvarez who is on the path to unifying all four major titles at super middleweight. On November 6th he will face IBF titleholder Caleb Plant of the United States in a fight that has been in the making for some time now. There were discussions in 2019 to do this fight, 2020 and now it is finally a reality. Caleb Plant is at last getting his chance to get in the ring when the two meet at the MGM Grand for Canelo’s first Vegas fight since 2019 and it is just the fourth appearance in Sin City for Plant. I point this out because despite the hype of this fight, Plant’s 21-0 record, and the fact that he has three title defenses; he really does not have big fight experience. He somewhat reminds me of Chris Algieri for those who remember him. He came into the Barclay Center in Brooklyn, New York to challenge Ruslan Provodnikov for the WBO 140 lb. title with a glossy record without any names and won a tight fight over the Russian. That got him a bigger fight with a super star in Manny Pacquiao and despite looking like a slick defensive wizard going in, he was picked apart and dropped six times on the way to a dominant decision loss. I don’t think Plant is going to be on the floor six times but I expect a fairly dominant victory for Alvarez. While Plant moves well and has a nice jab and does not get hit clean often he has not shown this skill level against an elite opponent as his title defenses have been fairly soft. Due to the level of success movers like Austin Trout, Erislandy Lara, Floyd and Floyd Mayweather had coupled with Billy Joe Saunders and Amir Khan’s ability to bank rounds there is this idea that the blue print is movement and slick boxing. Caleb Plant has that for sure and no one can take that away from him. However, Trout was on the canvas and lost, Lara lost, Saunders left with a badly injured eye socket and Khan found himself waking up looking at the lights on the ceiling of the arena. It is one thing to be difficult and it is another to get your hand raised. Floyd Mayweather of course is Floyd Mayweather and Canelo’s toughest fight since Floyd is Gennady Golovkin who is not a slick mover but a heavy handed pressure fighter who brings it for twelve rounds.

My prediction for fight night is a comprehensive master class from Canelo that either goes twelve rounds and Alvarez wins no less than nine or a stoppage somewhere past the midway point. While Plant has a lot of good attributes, I think he lacks the power and poise to keep Canelo at bay. Plant has a tendency to fade and that is against a much lower level of competition. Alvarez’s knack for body punching and his head movement will make Plant miss and expend energy like he never has in a fight previously. Plant, like Khan will likely win a few early rounds while Canelo starts slow and aims to time his foe but once Canelo opens up I see this getting fairly one sided.

For someone else’s preview and breakdown:

Two more high profile Super Middleweight Fights from history:

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